Pitching strategy: How to use statistics to get hitters out

Today's guest post is from Kenny Kendrena of Inside-Edge.com, a baseball services and solutions company that produces tools and reports for coaches and scouts. This article appeared in a previous edition of Collegiate Baseball.

Any time you look at batting averages by counts, there is one factor to consider that is sometimes overlooked.  The batting average on 2-strike counts will always be lower because with two strikes – a hitter cannot take a strike or swing and miss without making an out.  What pitchers and pitching coaches really want to know is: "If I throw a strike on this pitch, what are the chances it will be a hit?"  We can measure that pretty easily by taking hits divided by strikes.  That gives us a "batting average of strikes" rather than the usual method of hits per at-bats.

Using PalmScout's Hitter by Count Report, we found the hits / strikes averages for the final month of the 2006 major league season (over 28,000 at-bats).  Here they are:

Count     (hits / strikes)    Bavg. of Strikes
0-0           1308 for 19266           .068
0-1           943 for 8821               .107
0-2           409 for 3935               .104
1-0           813 for 8520               .095
1-1           890 for 7937               .112
1-2           701 for 6742               .104
2-0           320 for 3163               .101
2-1           575 for 4627               .124
2-2           765 for 6292               .122
3-0           23 for 923                   .025
3-1           276 for 2087               .132
3-2           653 for 4430               .147

Batting average of Strikes by count.  Calculated by hits divided by strikes. Highest #'s shaded/bolded.

What we can learn from these numbers

• The .068 batting average of strikes on 0-0 means the hitter has a 6.8 percent chance of a hit if a first-pitch strike is thrown.  You could also look at it as a 93.2 percent chance that a first-pitch strike will result in either an out, or an 0-1 count.
• The reason 0-0 and 3-0 counts have the lowest batting averages is because so many pitches are taken for strikes on those counts.  We will explore taken strikes further in the next section.
• This table also demonstrates why 3-ball counts are so dangerous to pitchers.  On 3-1 and 3-2 counts, hitters put 14.2 percent of strikes in play for hits. Let's not forget, also, that the alternative to throwing a strike on a 3-ball count is walking the batter.  So, not only do hitters put more strikes in play for hits on 3-1 and 3-2 counts, but they also reach base when a strike is not thrown.
• The highest batting average of strikes occurs on 2-1, 2-2, 3-1, and 3-2 counts. This is probably because the hitter has seen more pitches en route to those counts, and the 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 counts, in particular, are hitter’s counts in which the pitcher cannot afford to throw a ball.

Taking what the hitter gives you

One question we might pose to our pitchers is: "If you know the hitter is going to take a first-pitch strike over half the time, why not throw him a pitch in the strike zone?" Notice in the table below that hitters take the first pitch in the strike zone over half the time.  You would think, then, that pitchers would throw more pitches in the strike zone on 0-0 than on any other count, but that is not the case.  Here are the strike zone percentages and taken strikes percentages for each count, based on our sample of over 28,000 at-bats:

Count           Strike Zone %           Taken Strikes %
0-0                    53%                             51%
0-1                    45%                             19%
0-2                    33%                               8%
1-0                    55%                             33%
1-1                    51%                             17%
1-2                    40%                              8%
2-0                    60%                            40%
2-1                    57%                            15%
2-2                    48%                              7%
3-0                    62%                            87%
3-1                    64%                            22%
3-2                    60%                              5%

In-zone percentage and taken strike percentage by count.  Highest #'s for each are shaded/bolded.

What we can learn from these numbers

What our Pitcher by Count Report revealed is that pitchers throw an 0-0 pitch in the strike zone 53 percent of the time, even though hitters are going to take it for a strike half the time.  The 0-0 count is the 7th highest in-zone count.  Notice how pitchers (even in the big leagues) can all of the sudden throw pitches in the strike zone when the count goes to 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2?  Maybe the trick is to pretend that your 0-0 pitch is really your 3-1 pitch!